Impacts & Adaptation
Work Package 2: Costs of Inaction/Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. Detailed and consistent socio-economic and climate scenarios are used to advance current analysis of impacts and adaptation, with the additional aim of expanding the coverage to include different types of effects from different climate parameters (including extreme events). Market and non-market impacts as follows will be analyzed for coasts and tourism, health, agriculture and water, ecosystems and forests, energy consumption and production, and infrastructure and extremes (floods & storms).
Work Package 3: Catastrophic (Major) events. The impacts of climate change for catastrophic events from climate change will cover the major climate 'tipping points' (catastrophic events, also referred to as major climate discontinuities or irreversibilities), such as irreversible collapse of the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets and resulting sea level rise, changes in the thermo-haline circulation (loss or reversal of the gulf stream, changes in Atlantic deep water formation, changes in southern ocean upwelling/circumpolar deep water), and large scale regional changes such as Indian monsoon transformation, instability or collapse of the Amazon Forest, Tibetan albedo change, dieback of Boreal forests, shift to a persistent ENSO regime, etc. Socially contingent effects, where multiple stresses come together to lead to large-scale human societal changes will be included as well. The combination of stresses from climate change may converge on a number of vulnerable areas, for example in the Sahel in Africa, leading to potential regional conflict, poverty or famine, migration, etc. and affecting the achievement of Millennium Development Goals.